The John Fredericks Show
WTNT AM 730 &102.9 FM
WLEE AM 990
WHKT AM 1650
WBRG AM 1050 &104.5 FM
Listen Online M-F 6-9AM
The Looming Fiscal Cliff – CBS News Poll
CBS NEWS POLL
For release: Tuesday, December 18, 2012
6:30 pm ET
The Looming Fiscal Cliff
December 12-16, 2012
- Americans overwhelmingly want both sides to compromise and make a deal on taxes and spending cuts, because they foresee major economic problems without a deal.
- But just half expect a deal will be struck, and more disapprove than approve of how the President and the Republicans in Congress are handling the negotiations.
- Both sides face a public that continues to be dissatisfied – even angry – at the way things work in Washington. Republicans receive more blame for gridlock in Washington than President Obama and the Democrats.
- On the heels of his re-election last month, the President’s job approval rating is 57% — the highest since the killing of Osama bin Laden.
A Deal to Avert the “Fiscal Cliff”?
Americans expect economic consequences if there is no deal in Congress and the country goes over the “fiscal cliff” – the combination of tax increases and spending cuts that will automatically go into effect unless the President and Congress reach an agreement before January 1st.
The stakes are seen as high: more than nine in ten expect there to be economic problems if no deal is reached, and a majority expects major problems for the U.S. economy.
What’s at Stake: Economic Problems if No Deal …
Major problems 53%
Minor problems 38
No problems 4
And only half of Americans think a deal will be made. More than four in ten expect the country will go over the cliff, and automatic spending cuts and taxes will take effect. Democrats (58%) are much more optimistic about a deal than Republicans (38%).
Will a Budget Deal Get Done?
Probably will 50%
Probably won’t 44
Right now all parties involved — the President and Democrats and Republicans in Congress — receive negative marks for how they are handling the negotiations over taxes and spending cuts. But the public is more critical of the Republicans in Congress on this matter, and more approve of how the President and Democrats are handling these negotiations than approve of Congressional Republicans.
Handling of Fiscal Cliff Negotiations
Approve Disapprove
Obama and Democrats 38% 50
Republicans in Congress 17% 69
Americans want to see both sides compromise to avoid the fiscal cliff — very few Americans want one side or the other to stick to their positions at the expense of a deal.
What Should Both Sides Do?
Obama & Democrats should… Republicans should…
Compromise 78% 81%
Stick to positions 16 13
As negotiations over the fiscal cliff continue, three in 10 Americans are following news about those talks very closely, and another four in 10 are following it somewhat closely.
The Politics of the “Fiscal Cliff”
The President, specifically, gets high marks for his handling of tax policy, but not for his handling of the federal deficit.
Obama’s Handling of Taxes, Deficit
Approve Disapprove
Taxes 52% 41
Budget deficit 37% 51
The two key figures in the negotiations, President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner, elicit different views from the public. The President’s personal favorability is at 49% and higher than negative views of him (34%.) The Speaker is, unsurprisingly, less well-known. Most Americans (57%) have no opinion of him. Those that do give him unfavorable marks by three-to-one.
Views of President Obama, Speaker Boehner
President Obama John Boehner
Favorable 49% 11%
Unfavorable 34 31
Unsure/Haven’t heard 16 57
Views of the Parties, Washington
Views of the two parties have diverged a bit lately: favorable views of the Democratic Party have ticked up since the fall, while favorable views of the Republican Party have decreased. 51% of Americans now hold a positive view of the Democratic Party, while favorability has fallen for Republicans, to 31% from 36% last fall.
Views of the Political Parties
Now 9/2012
Democratic Party
Favorable 51% 49%
Not favorable 41 43
Republican Party
Favorable 31% 36%
Not favorable 60 55
Democrats, fresh off a Presidential win, are happy with their party: 87% have a favorable view of it. But Republicans are comparably less enthused: fewer, 63%, of rank-and-file Republicans have a favorable view of their party today.
Right now Republicans get nearly twice as much blame for general gridlock in D.C. as Barack Obama and the Democrats. One in five blames both sides equally. This hasn’t changed dramatically since the election.
Who Do You Blame More for Gridlock in Washington?
Now 9/2012
Republicans in Congress 47% 44%
Barack Obama and Democrats 24 29
Both equally (vol.) 21 19
As one might expect, views on who is to blame break sharply along partisan lines, but independents blame Republicans more.
Similarly, few are enthusiastic or even satisfied about the way things are going in Washington. Most – 54% – are dissatisfied and another 21% are outright angry. This also hasn’t changed much in the last year.
Feelings About Washington
Now 8/2011
Enthusiastic 3% 1%
Satisfied 19 14
Dissatisfied 54 56
Angry 21 28
Policies to Reduce the Deficit
Raising taxes on those with incomes of $250,000 or more is by far the most popular of the deficit-reduction measures tested in the poll; it is the only one that receives majority support. Americans are divided on reducing government services and programs that benefit people like themselves; 45% favor that, while 48% oppose it. Majorities oppose other measures tested.
Measures To Reduce the Deficit
Favor Oppose
Raise tax rate on $250K 69% 29
Reduce gov’t programs for people like you 45% 48
Reduce defense spending 42% 54
Reduce SS benefits for higher incomes 39% 57
Eliminate deductions for charity 33% 62
Raise retirement age for Medicare 32% 64
Eliminate mortgage deduction 30% 62
Personally pay more in taxes 29% 68
As the current debate in Washington demonstrates, there are political differences when it comes to raising taxes and reducing government programs. 84% of Democrats, and 66% of independents, favor raising taxes on higher income households. Even a slim 51% majority of Republicans support this measure for reducing the deficit.
There are large partisan differences on cutting government spending; 58% of Republicans favor this, while 60% of Democrats oppose it.
Views on Two Measures To Reduce the Deficit
Reps Dems Inds
Raise tax rate on $250K
Favor 51% 84% 66%
Oppose 46 15 30
Reduce gov’t programs for people like you
Favor 58% 33% 48%
Oppose 32 60 46
The poll also asked which of two policies Americans prefer: a plan that includes raising tax rates on higher income households, eliminating some tax deductions and making some government spending cuts, or one that does not raise tax rates, but eliminates more tax deductions and includes greater spending cuts. More prefer the first option.
Which Type of Plan Do You Prefer?
All Reps Dems Inds
Raise taxes on incomes $250,000+,
Eliminate some deductions,
Some spending cuts 52% 32% 69% 49%
Do not raise taxes on incomes $250,000+,
Eliminate more deductions,
More spending cuts 40 59 26 40
There are political differences on this question as well: 59% of Republicans prefer the second option, while 69% of Democrats prefer the first one.
The Economy and Jobs
Views of the local job market have risen quite a bit over the past two years; 44% now think it’s in good shape, up from 33% in early 2011 and just 27% in July 2010.
Condition of the Job Market in Your Area
Now 2/2011 7/2010
Good 44% 33% 27%
Bad 52 63 71
About a third thinks the local job market is improving, also up from previous polls.
Job Market in Your Area In Next Year
Now 2/2011 7/2010 12/2009 12/2008
Better 35% 28% 28% 39% 17%
Worse 15 12 14 18 41
Same 46 56 56 41 41
Compared to just a few months ago, fewer Americans are worried about a job loss in their household.
Concerned About Job Loss in Household?
Now 9/2012 2/2012 12/2011 2/2010 4/2009
Very 30% 36% 38% 32% 31% 44%
Somewhat 26 25 27 27 26 26
Not at all 43 37 35 40 41 30
Views of the economy overall have remained steady in the last few months, and are more positive than they were a year ago.
Condition of the Economy
Now 10/2012 9/2012 12/2011
Good 29% 32% 31% 19%
Bad 69 67 68 81
Similarly, about a third of Americans think the economy is improving, also unchanged recently and more optimistic than last December.
Direction of the Economy
Now 10/2012 9/2012 12/2011
Better 33% 36% 32% 24%
Worse 23 28 28 30
Same 43 35 39 45
Personally, a third of Americans expect next year to be more prosperous for their family than this year, nearly twice the number who thinks it will be less prosperous.
Expect Next Year to be More or Less Prosperous for Your Family
More 32%
Less 17
About as 49
But a majority of Americans still see the country as headed on the wrong track.
Country is Headed in the…
Now 9/2012 8/2012 1/2012 2/2011 9/2010
Right direction 37% 40% 31% 29% 36% 33%
Wrong track 57 54 62 65 58 60
The President’s Job Approval
Overall, the President stands at 57% approval today, up from before his re-election win. Historically, some Presidents have seen a rise in approval ratings after winning a second term.
Obama Job Approval
Now 10/2012 9/2012 12/2011 5/2011
Approve 57% 50% 51% 47% 57%
Disapprove 37 42 42 44 37
On specific matters, the President gets mixed reviews on his handling of the economy, and very positive marks on terrorism, as has been the case through most of his first term.
Obama Approval on Handling…
Approve Disapprove
Economy 47% 47
Foreign policy 51% 32
Terrorism 60% 29
Syria
Americans do not currently support U.S. engagement in Syria. 62% say the U.S. does not have a responsibility to do something about the fighting there; just 27% think the country has such a responsibility. Americans across the political spectrum hold similar views on this.
Does the U.S. Have a Responsibility in Syria?
Total Reps Dems Inds
Yes 27% 29% 26% 26%
No 62 60 63 63
More than half are following news about the violence in Syria closely, but just 18% are following it very closely. More Americans are paying attention to the “fiscal cliff” debate in Washington.
Congress
Congress continues to receive dismal ratings from the American public. 81% disapprove of the job Congress is doing, up six points from before the election. A mere 11% approve.
Historically, Congressional approval has never been very high, but the 112th Congress has received some of the most negative ratings since CBS News began asking about Congress’ performance in 1977. The current Congress’ highest approval rating was 24%, just shortly after this term began, and its lowest rating was 9%, reached twice in the fall of 2011.
Congress Job Approval
Now 10/2012 12/2011 10/2011 2/2011
Approve 11% 15% 11% 9% 24%
Disapprove 81 75 83 84 62
Hillary Clinton
Outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton receives positive ratings from the Americans public. 55% view her favorably. These ratings are similar to what they were in 2009.
Views of Hillary Clinton
Now 3/2009
Favorable 55% 58%
Not favorable 23 25
Undecided/haven’t heard enough 22 17
____________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone from December 12-16, 2012 among 1,179 adults nationwide.
Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
CBS NEWS POLL
The Looming Fiscal Cliff
December 12-16, 2012
q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind Oct12c
% % % % %
Approve 57 16 90 53 50
Disapprove 37 78 8 37 42
DK/NA 6 6 2 10 8
q2 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
Right direction 37 6 65 32 39
Wrong track 57 89 29 62 54
DK/NA 6 5 7 7 7
q3 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
Aug12b
Economy & Jobs 39 36 42 38 50
Budget Deficit/Nat’l debt/fiscal 12 16 7 13 7
Partisan Politics 4 1 6 5 2
Education 3 2 5 2 2
Health Care 3 3 4 3 5
Taxes/IRS 3 2 2 4 1
Guns 2 1 4 2 0
Republicans 2 0 3 1 1
Big Government/Bureaucracy 2 2 0 3 1
Barack Obama 2 6 0 1 1
Other 24 28 24 25 27
DK/NA 4 3 3 6 3
q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy?
Oct12c
Approve 51 17 77 48 47
Disapprove 32 64 13 30 41
DK/NA 17 19 10 23 12
q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
Approve 47 10 78 43 46
Disapprove 47 86 17 50 47
DK/NA 6 4 5 7 7
q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the threat of terrorism?
Jan12b
Approve 60 28 83 58 61
Disapprove 29 59 10 26 29
DK/NA 12 13 6 16 10
q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling taxes?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Approve 52 17 79 50
Disapprove 41 78 13 42
DK/NA 7 5 7 8
q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the federal budget deficit?
Feb12a
Approve 37 8 68 28 32
Disapprove 51 89 19 56 59
DK/NA 12 3 13 16 9
Q9-q10 BLANK
q11 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Oct12c
Approve 11 12 10 10 15
Disapprove 81 79 82 80 75
DK/NA 9 8 8 10 10
q12 In general, is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable or not favorable?
Sep12a
Favorable 31 63 8 31 36
Not favorable 60 30 90 52 55
DK/NA 9 6 2 17 9
q13 In general, is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable or not favorable?
Favorable 51 17 87 40 49
Not favorable 41 79 11 44 43
DK/NA 8 4 2 16 8
Q14 BLANK
q15 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
Oct12c
Very good 1 1 1 1 2
Fairly good 28 10 44 26 30
Fairly bad 46 48 42 48 36
Very bad 23 41 12 23 31
DK/NA 1 1 1 2 1
q16 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Better 33 4 57 30 36
Worse 23 44 9 23 28
Same 43 52 34 46 35
DK/NA 1 0 0 1 1
q17 How would you rate the job market in your area these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind Feb11a
% % % % %
Very good 5 1 7 7 3
Fairly good 39 31 51 34 30
Fairly bad 32 39 26 33 35
Very bad 20 24 15 22 28
DK/NA 3 5 1 4 4
q18 Over the next year, do you think the job market in your area will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
Better 35 14 53 31 28
Worse 15 31 7 13 12
Same 46 50 35 53 56
DK/NA 4 4 4 3 4
q19 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion?
Oct12c*
Favorable 49 14 78 45 46
Not favorable 34 77 7 31 42
Undecided 12 6 11 17 9
Haven’t heard enough 4 2 4 4 1
Refused 1 1 0 3 1
*Among registered voters
q20 Is your opinion of John Boehner favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough about John Boehner yet to have an opinion?
Jan11c
Favorable 11 19 7 9 12
Not favorable 31 19 38 31 14
Undecided 20 26 18 19 20
Haven’t heard enough 37 36 36 39 54
Refused 1 0 1 2 0
q21 Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven’t you heard enough about Hillary Clinton yet to have an opinion?
Mar09a
Favorable 55 29 77 51 58
Not favorable 23 48 8 20 25
Undecided 17 18 12 20 14
Haven’t heard enough 5 5 2 7 3
Refused 1 1 0 1 0
Q22-Q23 BLANK
q24 Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington–enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind Aug11a
% % % % %
Enthusiastic 3 0 8 1 1
Satisfied, not enthusiastic 19 11 27 17 14
Dissatisfied but not angry 54 52 49 59 56
Angry 21 36 13 20 28
DK/NA 3 1 3 3 1
q25 These days, who do you blame more for the difficulties in reaching agreements and passing legislation in Congress–the Republicans in Congress or Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress?
Sep12a
Republicans in Congress 47 11 82 36 44
Barack Obama and Democrats 24 60 5 20 29
Both (Vol.) 21 21 8 33 19
DK/NA 8 8 5 11 8
q26 RELEASED SEPARATELY
q27 Compared to this year, do you expect next year to be more prosperous for you and your family, less prosperous, or do you expect next year to be about as prosperous for you and your family as this year has been?
Dec11b
More 32 17 46 29 30
Less 17 33 8 15 19
About as 49 47 45 54 50
DK/NA 2 3 1 3 1
Q28-Q30 BLANK
q31 As you may know, tax increases and automatic spending cuts will take effect in January unless the President and Congress reach an agreement before January 1st. This deadline is commonly referred to as the fiscal cliff. How closely have you been following news about the fiscal cliff budget negotiations? Would you say you have followed this very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely?
Very closely 30 31 32 27
Somewhat closely 39 46 36 38
Not too closely 30 23 31 34
DK/NA 1 0 1 1
q32 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress are handling the current negotiations over tax increases and spending cuts?
Approve 38 8 70 28
Disapprove 50 84 21 54
DK/NA 12 9 9 18
q33 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling the current negotiations over tax increases and spending cuts?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Approve 17 38 4 16
Disapprove 69 48 87 66
DK/NA 14 15 9 17
q34 In the current negotiations over tax increases and spending cuts, which do you think Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress should do — compromise some of their positions in order to come to an agreement, or stick to their positions even if it means not coming to an agreement?
Compromise 78 89 67 82
Stick to positions 16 6 27 13
Depends (Vol.) 1 1 0 2
Don’t know/No answer 4 4 5 3
q35 In the current negotiations over tax increases and spending cuts, which do you think the Republicans in Congress should do — compromise some of their positions in order to come to an agreement, or stick to their positions even if it means not coming to an agreement?
Compromise 81 66 92 81
Stick to positions 13 28 4 12
Depends (Vol.) 1 2 0 1
Don’t know/No answer 5 5 3 6
q36 If an agreement is not reached before January 1st automatic tax increases and spending cuts will take effect. Do you think that would cause major economic problems for the country, minor economic problems, or no economic problems at all for the country?
Major economic problems 53 65 51 48
Minor economic problems 38 29 38 43
No economic problems 4 2 5 4
Don’t know/No answer 5 4 6 4
q37 Do you think Barack Obama and the Republicans in Congress probably will or probably will not reach an agreement on deficit reduction before the deadline at the end of the year?
Probably will 50 38 58 50
Probably will not 44 56 37 42
DK/NA 7 5 5 8
Q38-Q40 BLANK
q41 Which comes closest to your view about the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003? The tax cuts should be continued for everyone. The tax cuts should only continue for household incomes under $250,000 a year. The tax cuts should expire for everyone?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind Oct12c
% % % % %
Continue for all 28 53 11 28 35
Continue for under $250,000 52 30 71 49 42
Expire for all 13 11 12 15 15
DK/NA 7 6 6 8 8
q42 In order to reduce the budget deficit, which would you prefer? 1. A plan that includes raising tax rates on household incomes over $250,000 a year, eliminating some tax deductions, and cutting some government spending OR 2. A plan that does not raise tax rates on household incomes over $250,000 a year, but instead eliminates more tax deductions, and includes greater cuts to government spending?
Raise tax rates over $250K 52 32 69 49
Does not 40 59 26 40
DK/NA 8 9 5 11
Q43 BLANK
q44 I’m going to read you some suggestions that have been made to reduce the size of the federal budget deficit. Please tell me whether you would favor or oppose each of the following. (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose)
Reducing defense spending?
Favor 42 25 59 38
Oppose 54 73 37 57
DK/NA 4 2 4 5
q45 (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose) Reducing Social Security benefits for retirees with higher incomes?
Favor 39 42 36 39
Oppose 57 54 62 56
DK/NA 4 4 2 5
q46 (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose) Raising the retirement age at which a person can start to collect full Medicare benefits?
Favor 32 39 26 34
Oppose 64 57 72 62
DK/NA 4 5 3 4
q47 (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose) Eliminating the mortgage interest tax deduction for homeowners?
Favor 30 27 32 30
Oppose 62 68 63 58
DK/NA 8 5 6 12
q48 (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose) Eliminating the tax deduction for charitable contributions?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Favor 33 34 33 33
Oppose 62 63 63 61
DK/NA 5 3 4 7
q49 (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose) Raising the tax rate on household incomes that are over $250,000 a year?
Favor 69 51 84 66
Oppose 29 46 15 30
DK/NA 2 3 0 4
q50 (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose) Personally paying more in taxes?
Favor 29 22 32 32
Oppose 68 77 66 64
DK/NA 3 1 3 4
q51 (In order to reduce the budget deficit, would you favor or oppose) Reducing some government programs and services that benefit people like you?
Favor 45 58 33 48
Oppose 48 32 60 46
DK/NA 7 10 7 6
Q52-Q53 BLANK
q54 Congress will soon decide whether or not to raise the federal debt ceiling, which is the legal limit on how much the federal government can borrow to pay for the budget deficit. Some people say the debt ceiling should be raised, because otherwise the country could default on its loans, causing severe problems for the U.S. economy. Other people say the debt ceiling should not be raised because the country owes too much money already, and raising it will cause long term economic problems. In general, do you think Congress should or should not raise the federal debt ceiling?
Should 25 13 36 22
Should not 68 83 54 71
DK/NA 7 4 9 7
Q55-Q56 BLANK
q57 Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. 2. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as guest workers, but not to apply for U.S. citizenship. OR, 3. They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.?
*** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ***
**** Party ID ****
Total Rep Dem Ind Oct12c
% % % % %
Allowed to stay and apply 47 35 53 48 51
Stay as guest worker 24 23 22 25 20
Required to leave 27 39 23 23 24
Don’t know/No answer 3 4 2 4 5
q58 How closely have you been following news about the ongoing violence in Syria? Would you say you have followed this very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely?
Very closely 18 25 15 18
Somewhat closely 39 36 40 39
Not too closely 42 39 44 43
DK/NA 0 0 1 0
q59 Do you think the United States has a responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria between government forces and anti-government groups, or doesn’t the United States have this responsibility?
U.S. has responsibility 27 29 26 26
U.S. does not 62 60 63 63
DK/NA 11 10 12 11
Q60-q61 BLANK
q62 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job–very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all?
Sep12a
Very concerned 30 27 28 34 36
Somewhat concerned 26 28 26 25 25
Not at all concerned 43 45 45 41 37
DK/NA 0 0 0 0 1
UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Total Respondents 1,179
Republicans 308 286 (24%)
Democrats 422 420 (36%)
Independents 449 473 (40%)